NFL Daily Lines - Week2

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2018 Survivor Picks

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Password Must be at least 6 characters and contain a number and an uppercase and lowercase letter. With Ingram out, the Saints are now more likely to pass near the goal line.

It also means there are more opportunities for Alvin Kamara to have the ball in his hand. The Packers are one of a handful of teams that have a chance to finish with the best record in the NFL. Rodgers also has the best odds to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns according to current Vegas odds.

Remember that the passing touchdown leader has been the MVP nine of the last 11 seasons. That leaves Jamaal Williams with the best chance to win the running back job. On top of that, the Packers added red zone specialist Jimmy Graham. The Rams head into this season with even more talent than last year on both sides of the ball, and they already won 11 games last season. Vegas projects the Rams to win 10 games this season, which puts them in the running to have the most wins in the NFL.

As highlighted earlier, the MVP winner has been the quarterback of the team with the most wins eight of the last 11 seasons. Nine of the last 10 MVPs have finished top three in passing touchdowns, and at 23 years old and in his first season with a new coaching staff, Goff finished fifth in passing touchdowns. To sneak into the top three, Goff will have to battle against regression.

According to current Vegas odds, Goff is projected to score the eighth-most passing touchdowns this season, but two of the quarterbacks ahead of him are coming off ACL injuries and four are at least 36 years old. Goff also has a higher probability to lead the league in passing touchdowns than winning MVP, which tells me his MVP odds are a little off.

Goff was very efficient, but he did not have enough volume to be a serious MVP candidate last season. To search for a player use one of two formats: Click to close or press Esc.

Braves Verlander strikes out 11, lowers ERA to 2. Alan Williams, Nets agree on 2-way deal Shams: Sports Fantasy March Madness. Hayden Winks Odds and Ends. Booms and Busts Week 2: Booms and Busts Week 1: Burn them in Week 1, and you lose those options. This matchup features rookie Lions head coach Matt Patricia vs. The Lions are coming off a campaign and solid season from QB Matthew Stafford, and according to Vegas lines are the fourth-safest pick of the week though it's worth noting that our models disagree.

The best feature of Detroit as a survivor pick this week is low future value. We project the Lions will be a below-average team in , and the number of future weeks in which they'll warrant even minimal consideration as a survivor-pick possibility look pretty sparse.

For the last two seasons, picking against Cleveland has been as close to a foolproof survivor-pick strategy as a player could hope for. The Browns have managed just one win in their last 32 games, so it's a bit surprising not to see more picks piling on Pittsburgh this week. At post time, the Steelers' pick popularity was about eight percent. Plus, the "divisional game fear" is likely having an impact, as well. Still, the big question here is whether eight-percent pick popularity is even warranted.

Burning a team like the Steelers, who are expected to be very good this year, as just a four-point Vegas favorite on the road when you have 31 other teams in your quiver to choose from? That's a tough pill to swallow, even if it does mean you get to pick against the Browns.

Your best NFL Week 1 survivor pick is the one that offers the best balance of safety, pick popularity, and future value for your specific pool. Every possible pick has an expected value associated with it, and it takes a lot of data and math to figure out which is the highest.

Because factors like the size of your pool and its specific rules can make a big impact on your optimal picking strategy, even in Week 1. For example, the more entries your pool has, the more aggressive your picks need to be.

In very large pools, you know going in that you'll probably need to survive all 17 weeks to have any shot at prize money, so if there's a very good option to pick a mediocre team early on, you should take it. In smaller pools, though, you'd want to play it safer.

Similarly, if you're in a "strike pool" that allows you to take one loss without being eliminated, then you don't need to be quite as conservative with your picks compared to playing in a traditional "one loss and you're out" pool. Need to start making two picks per week later in the season? Then you'd better put a higher priority on saving better teams for later use, starting right off the bat in Week 1.







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