Week 5 Picks ATS
When you see the potential for so much variance from the projection, a game is usually just not worth the money. Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints Now they get to face a New Orleans defense that allowed a league-high 3. Only the Denver Broncos have been better in that span allowed points fewer than expected via the rush.
The Chiefs tallied 2. Those two should be a handful for Pittsburgh, whose secondary was ranked as the 23rd best in the league by the game charters at Pro Football Focus. Indianapolis Colts at Washington Redskins More than half of those yards 58 were after contact, a troublesome statistic for the Colts, owners of the fourth-worst run defense in the NFL per PFF.
And when that happened to him on Sunday his passer rating dropped from The three games above represent my best plays of the week because my analysis shows the point spreads are the most divergent from what I expect to happen once the teams take the field. Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons Green Bay Packers — 1. New York Jets Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams Los Angeles Rams One of these teams ranks fourth in rushing yards per game, while the other gives up the fourth-most rushing yards per game.
The question you have to answer here is whether you believe the Eagles are what they showed in Week 3. I am a believer in Carson Wentz. The Lions have only generated one turnover on the season, and their defensive backs have been getting torched by less than stellar passing offenses. On top of that, the Eagles defense is only allowing nine points per game and looks strong from front to back.
The Patriots are fresh off being shutout by the Bills at home in Week 4. They gave up yards on the ground and failed to rush for at least , themselves, for the first time this season.
No team averages more yards per carry, or more rushing yards per game, than the Cleveland Browns. Could Tom Brady be rusty after missing the last four weeks? But these are the Browns. Their biggest offensive flaw may be that Jay Gruden refuses to run the ball in spite of the team averaging 4. The Ravens defense has been one of the surprises of the season, ranking first in total defense and seventh in scoring.
Baltimore will be able to run the ball against a weak Washington defense, and their secondary will bottle up Cousins and the aerial attack. The Falcons offense ranks first in both total offense and scoring, and are coming off one of the most memorable performances we have seen in the last few years. The Broncos got to see their first glimpse of rookie Paxton Lynch last week when Trevor Siemian left the game with a shoulder injury. However, Siemian will likely be available come Sunday and should be back at the helm.
As good as the Broncos defense has been this season, they have sacrificed a lot of yards on the ground. The Bengals may have physically dominated the Dolphins last Thursday night, but they allowed Miami to hang around for far too long. Their offense is really missing Tyler Eifert, and without Hue Jackson calling the plays, they have struggled mightily to run the ball.
Conversely, Dallas continues to rely on their ground game, while Dak Prescott refuses to make those errant throws we expect from a rookie quarterback. But the Cowboys have yet to face a very good defense. Cincinnati may not be very good defensively, but their pass-rush will be able to get after Dak if they can force them into third-and-long situations.
Marvin Lewis will sell out to stop the run on first and second downs, and Andy Dalton will continue putting the ball in the hands of A.
Their offense is third in scoring and their defense is generating turnovers. The Raiders are ATS in their last five games at home, and have lost three of their last five games to the Chargers.
Rivers keeps this one within a field goal. One thing I am certain of is that the Rams always play their own division incredibly tough, even when they are a bad team. For me, this comes down to which team I trust more. It appears teams have figured out how to slow down Odell Beckham Jr.:
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